Tourism 2035: The Demand Strategy Sitting Upstream of Protected-Area Development
Tourism Australia’s Tourism 2035 sets out a long-term strategy for growing inbound tourism through to the middle of the next decade. Its goal is substantial: increase visitor expenditure from $33 billion in 2025 to between $61 billion and $69 billion by 2035. High-yield travellers, regional dispersal, nature-based experiences and a newly defined Australian luxury market all feature prominently in how Tourism Australia intends to get there.
None of that is a protected-area development proposal.
The strategy doesn’t nominate a national park for a lodge. It doesn’t propose a lease, resort, hut network or exclusive walking experience. It should not be presented as evidence that Tourism Australia is planning any of those things.
But it is worth watching for another reason.
Tourism 2035 helps establish the demand, investment logic and industry conditions within which future tourism developments can become commercially attractive and politically easier to justify.
Tourism Australia itself describes this relationship clearly. Its role is to create demand, work with industry and partners to convert that demand into expenditure, and support the industry through leadership, insight and advocacy. More significantly, the report states that the demand tourism creates fosters “development and capacity growth” in accommodation, aviation, transport and other sectors.
That makes this a different kind of document for Tourism Watch.
It isn’t the development. It sits upstream of it.
Nature is becoming part of the growth strategy
Tourism Australia has identified a genuine change in travel behaviour.
Demand for nature-based activities among Australians grew by 47 per cent between 2014 and 2023. Bushwalking and visiting national parks grew by more than 70 per cent. Tourism Australia describes nature-based tourism as no longer a niche market and says demand for “authentic and regenerative nature experiences” is becoming a major driver of interest in Australia.
At the same time, 55 per cent of High Yielding Travellers surveyed by Tourism Australia in 2025 said they were willing to pay more for sustainable tourism.
People wanting to experience nature is not the problem. Nor is nature-based tourism inherently at odds with conservation.
The tension begins when growing demand for nature is translated into a perceived need for more tourism product, infrastructure and investment in the places providing that experience.
In protected areas, the quality visitors are seeking often depends precisely on the landscape remaining relatively undeveloped. Creating more infrastructure to monetise that demand can change the qualities that made the place attractive in the first place.
That tension isn’t stated by Tourism 2035. But the ingredients for it are clearly present.
Luxury changes the equation
The strongest reason for Keep It Wild Australia to watch this strategy is Tourism Australia’s new focus on luxury.
One of the four strategic priorities in Tourism 2035 is to establish a distinctive Australian luxury position. Importantly, Tourism Australia isn’t defining luxury primarily through traditional opulence.
It says global luxury is moving towards deep connections with nature, rarity, cultural depth and personal meaning. Australia’s landscapes, wildlife, coastal and outback journeys and existing high-end lodges are identified as particularly well suited to that shift.
Tourism Australia intends to target two segments in particular: the “experience connoisseur” and the “sustainable luxury seeker”. It identifies markets with an appetite for “premium nature”, intends to showcase new luxury experiences to create a “strong pipeline of experiences”, and wants specialist operators and luxury travel advisers driving longer, higher-spending itineraries into regional and remote Australia.
The stated ambition is also to encourage more luxury visitors to stay longer in regional and remote destinations.
None of this means those experiences have to be inside protected areas. Regional towns, private conservation land and existing accommodation can all serve this market.
But the combination is significant:
nature + rarity + luxury + regional and remote dispersal + high-yield visitors
When a protected landscape itself becomes part of the premium proposition, that combination deserves attention.
The supply-side connection is already in the strategy
It would be too simple to describe Tourism Australia as merely creating demand and leaving everyone else to build the supply.
The report goes further than that.
Tourism 2035 explicitly intersects with the Australian Government’s THRIVE 2030 strategy, which Tourism Australia describes as establishing national direction across supply, workforce, infrastructure and policy. THRIVE 2030 is also described as addressing “critical supply-side challenges” across the tourism industry.
Elsewhere, Tourism 2035 says converting demand into expenditure requires strong supply. Destinations with “strong investment pipelines”, developed infrastructure, transport capacity and an engaged workforce are described as being better able to capitalise on demand.
Looking towards the next phase of growth, Tourism Australia anticipates stronger Indigenous-led and nature-based product and says investment in regional quality and workforce capability will “lift readiness”.
Tourism Australia’s own role also crosses into supply-enabling activity. Its ongoing industry functions include advocating for tourism and sector development in response to emerging consumer behaviour and partnering with Austrade and industry associations to grow the industry’s interests.
Under its luxury priority, it commits to advocating for improved regional air access and connectivity, with “improved access and infrastructure over the long term” identified as an implication for industry.
Under another priority, Tourism Australia says it will seek to stimulate growth in aviation capacity and competition, while regional aviation, road, rail, guided touring and walking trails are all identified as ways of expanding dispersal and the breadth of Australian tourism experiences.
So the line between demand creation and supply development isn’t completely clean. Tourism Australia sits on both sides of it at different points.
The report does recognise environmental limits
There is an important counterpoint.
Tourism 2035 is not indifferent to environmental impacts.
It discusses overtourism internationally and notes that some destinations have responded by limiting access, restricting accommodation development or zoning, and using fees and other measures to reduce pressure.
The strategy also says Tourism Australia wants to promote operators that put “people and planet first”, with sites preserved for future generations. tourism-australia-tourism-2035-strategy.pdf And its performance framework adopts what Tourism Australia calls a triple-bottom-line approach, stating a commitment to the long-term health of Australia’s culture and environment.
Those commitments matter and should be acknowledged.
What the strategy does not establish is an equivalent set of place-based limits for the tourism growth it is seeking.
Its formal measures include expenditure, visitation, regional dispersal, demand for First Nations experiences and demand for sustainable Australian experiences. Its environmental measures are environmental reporting and making key Tourism Australia events carbon neutral.
There are no corresponding measures for ecological condition, cumulative tourism footprint, biodiversity impact, protected-area carrying capacity, commercial development footprint or limits of acceptable change.
That difference is important.
The strategy recognises that tourism needs a healthy environment. What it does not resolve is what should happen when capturing tourism demand conflicts with keeping a particular place undeveloped.
That decision will generally occur downstream, in planning processes, management plans, investment strategies, expressions of interest, leases and individual project approvals.
Those are the documents Keep It Wild Australia needs to watch.
The chain worth watching
The relationship is not automatic. Tourism 2035 does not mean a lodge or other commercial development will appear in a protected area.
But it establishes a chain that is worth following:
- Tourism Australia grows demand. High-yield travellers, nature, luxury and regional dispersal are actively promoted.
- Supply is positioned to respond. Strong investment pipelines, regional quality, infrastructure, transport capacity and industry readiness become part of the growth equation.
- Government and industry identify opportunities. New experiences, premium products, accommodation, access and supporting infrastructure can be developed to capture that demand.
- Projects become commercially and politically legible. Investment cases, grants, partnerships, expressions of interest, leases and concessions provide mechanisms for delivering them.
- Where protected areas are identified as the desired setting, development pressure can follow.
The first two steps are directly visible in Tourism 2035. Steps three to five are not predictions made by Tourism Australia. They are the downstream pathway Tourism Watch will be looking for.
That distinction matters.
The value of watching this document is that it allows us to see some of the reasoning arrive before the proposal does.
What we’ll be watching for
Keep It Wild Australia will treat Tourism 2035 as a strategic driver, not as a protected-area development entry.
The next step is to watch where its language and objectives begin intersecting with state tourism strategies, Austrade and THRIVE 2030 initiatives, funding programs, regional destination plans, expressions of interest and protected-area planning processes.
Some of the language worth watching includes:
- “lift readiness” and “regional quality”
- “strong investment pipelines”
- “supply-side challenges”
- “high yield”
- “regional and remote”
- “distinctive luxury positioning”
- “experience connoisseur”
- “sustainable luxury seeker”
- “premium nature”
- “strong pipeline of experiences”
- “improved access and infrastructure”
- “regional air access and connectivity”
- “nature-based product”
- “sector development”
- “Signature Experiences”
None of these phrases is concerning on its own.
Regional dispersal can benefit communities. Better transport can improve access for residents. Nature-based tourism can support conservation and understanding. First Nations-led tourism should not be treated as a proxy for commercialisation, particularly where Traditional Owners determine what occurs on Country.
The signal becomes stronger when several objectives converge.
High-priority trigger: a strategy or proposal combining regional or remote dispersal, high-yield or luxury tourism, nature-based product, and investment or infrastructure readiness, particularly where a national park or other protected area is identified as the setting.
That is the point where a national tourism ambition can begin turning into a site-specific development proposal.
And that’s where Tourism Watch picks up the trail.